The 'Biblical' famine

 

What was the cause of the 1983-85 famine in Ethiopia

Figure 1: Bob Geldof in Ethiopia at the forefront of a new celebrity fundraising effort, sparked by the BBC’s report on Ethiopia’s famine. Source: The Guardian 

Contrary to the what the papers and aid commercials reported about the Ethiopian famine, the ‘Biblical’ famine was not simply due to a drought and a late rainy season but rather do due a combination of natural and man-made factors. The components being drought, environmental deterioration such as soil erosion, population growth, underinvestment in agriculture, government policies and civil war. Whist drought is the main cause of famine the Ethiopian civil war and governmental politics played a significant role. In 1974 the overthrowing of emperor Haile Selassie was overthrown and a new military group called the Derg began to run the country. Whilst this happened in 1974 about ten years before the famine it is important to note how political instability can impact nations well after a significant event occurs through policy and leadership. One of the Derg’s first policies was to nationalise the farmland yet independent farmers resisted these changes as it went against their traditional ownership of farms. The government continued with investing 70-90% of investment into these state farms which only produced 10% of the nation’s food supply. The government passed a policy on low prices for grain whist growing coffee which is 65% of the foreign exchange was taxed heavily leaving little incentive to grow the product. Productivity of farming reduced incredibly as farmers grew weary of the government taking away their farms and therefore maintenance of farmland reduced. In 1982 per capita food production was only 81% of what it had been in 1969-71 ().

For 23 years the Ethiopian government attempted to defeat the Eritrean and Tigran liberation movements. In order to overpower the repels the Derg cut off the government services to the north and bombed villages destroying croplands. Fighting intensified in 1985 leading to the question of whether foreign aid was used to fight a civil war rather than a famine. The time of intense unrest was at the time nearing to harvest in rebel territories. Main emergency routes had been cut off into Eritrea and Tigray. Roads leading to camps including Mekele, Korem and Alamata also became a security risk cutting these areas off from aid which was only possible to be delivered through air.

Deforestation and poor environmental conditions are other aspects leading to the intensity of the famine. As the vegetation is reduced the rainfall running directly to the oceans increases. Less rainfall then evaporated into the atmosphere to recharge rain clouds that move inland. Again this factor is similar to the political disturbances as deforestation does not change the evapotranspiration rates over night but can be playing a significant role in the long run.

Soil erosion is another factor to be considered as intense rains increases the loss of impoverished soils. The loss of land through soil erosion intensifies cultivation on the more productive lands that remain, often shortening the fallow period needed to restore the fertility. This can lead to a reliance on fertilisers which were incredibly expensive at the time where food price insecurity was on the rise.

👨‍👩‍👧‍👧Does the Malthusian argument apply to famines?

The Ethiopian population was on the rise. In 1984 the census revieled the population to be 42 million compared to 1978 which was thought to be 31 million. Is population rise the lead to demise? Future projections are not too optimistic especially calculating the impact of climatic changes on the land as well as the population rise means more people will suffer from food insecurity. This perspective fails to take into account the fact that famines can occur when food security is adequate yet access becomes the issue.

From this description of the background of the Ethiopian famine three aspects have come to light. One being a famine is not an event that occurs, but a result of a succession of events. Second being that the topics in which I have described to contribute to this famine are all interconnected, one cannot simply be isolated as unrelated to the other as shown by the visual. And finally, the topics discussed are not necessarily happening chronologically but in actual fact happening at the same time which lead to the most intense famine.

📜Lessons to be learnt 

Water and food is used as a war tactic leading which can ultimately cause a famine. In recent periods this can be seen in Somalia and South Sudan. In order to prevent famines from occuring in the future more must be done to ensure food reserves are protected if there is a war or political unrest. One of the first priorities be development agencies' and governing bodies is to protect and manage these resources rather than exploiting the vulnerabilities of land and people for political gain. Secondly, famine warnings must be acted upon as soon as possible. Instead of waiting for governing bodies to declare a state of crisis or for the state to declare a famine malnutrition and drought must be seen as a continuous effort to reduce their impacts before it gets to the stage of famine. For these lessons to be learnt first and foremost what is required is effective governance and an integration of between NGOs and development agencies.

So far the main argument has been in favour of Steven Devereux’stheory that famine is a complex process and not to be labelled only as a climatic phenomenon however can the opposite also be argued that Ethiopia’s GDP is dependent on rainfall and therefore famine is determined by drought as it has the ability to significantly alter the Ethiopian economy.

The chart shows the relationship between precipitation and GDP as being significant and whist there are problems with equating GDP with economic growth it is a clear way of showing the relationship the economy has with the seasons and agriculture. This leads nicely only the next blog topic discussing the relationship between the economy and water.